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| SPREADSHEET
RISK ANALYSIS BOOKS |
| > The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets:
Management Science, Spreadsheet Engineering, and Modeling Craft |
| > Introduction to Simulation and Risk Analysis, 2/e |
| > La modélisation du risque: Simulations de Monte Carlo |
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> Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis, 5e 
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The
Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets: Management Science, Spreadsheet
Engineering, and Modeling Craft
By Stephen G. Powell, Dartmouth College, and Kenneth R. Baker,
Dartmouth College
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| Description:
Successful business modeling is much more than a technical discipline;
it's an art. And as in most professional disciplines, you can tell
the experts apart from the novices by the creativity that they bring
to the craft. Now, with The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets,
you can master the technical knowledge as well as those essential
craft skills needed to develop real expertise in business modeling.
You'll learn:
- Effective methods for designing, building, and testing models,
and for performing model-based analyses,
- Non-technical craft skills that expert modelers commonly employ,
such as abstracting a situation, debugging a model, and translating
model results into managerial insights, and
- Standard statistical and management science techniques used
in business today, such as data analysis, simulation, and optimization.
The Art of Modeling with Spreadsheets features balanced
and streamlined coverage of spreadsheet engineering, management
science techniques, and modeling craft. The textbook includes a
CD-ROM with the example spreadsheets referred to in the text, as
well as three software tools of special importance to business analysts:
Premium Solver, Crystal Ball, and Sensitivity Toolkit (featuring
four sensitivity tools). A unique collection of cases and exercises
reinforces the more open-ended skills covered by the text.
This textbook features an entire 90-page chapter on Crystal Ball,
covering topics that include selecting uncertain parameters and
appropriate probability distributions, ensuring output precision,
interpreting simulation outcomes, and optimization using OptQuest.
Chapter appendices provide details and advice on Crystal Ball settings
and additional Crystal Ball features. Examples discuss valuation,
option pricing, cash budgeting, sales forecasting and more. The
authors also include a macro-driven Toolkit that uses Crystal Ball
for their own advanced sensitivity analysis.
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For our UK and European visitors:
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| Details:
Published August 2003 by John Wiley & Sons, Copyright 2004,
399 pp., Hardcover,
ISBN 0471209376; Includes Student Edition (140-day limit) of
Crystal Ball 2000 Professional.
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Introduction to
Simulation and Risk Analysis, 2/e
By James R. Evans, University of Cincinnati, and David L. Olson,
Texas A&M University
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| Description:
This text provides an introduction to the concepts, methodologies,
and applications of simulation in business. Easy-to-use and apply,
it uses spreadsheets as the principal means to illustrate simulation
models and computational issues -- providing students with a solid
foundation for learning to use the more advanced commercially available
simulation software.
The value of simulation is demonstrated through the use of real
applications throughout. The text provides students with considerable
hands-on experiences and allows students to address both risk analysis
and systems simulation approaches in a common framework. It also
presents a variety of applications in operations management, finance,
and marketing -- showing the variety of uses of Monte-Carlo simulation
as well as the flexibility of Crystal Ball in addressing risk.
July 2001: Prentice Hall has just released the second edition
of this popular risk analysis textbook. As before, this book comes
with a version of Crystal Ball, example models, and simulation case
studies. This revised edition includes an expanded presentation
of basic Excel skills, more hands-on exercises, new examples and
illustrations of simulation models, and a new chapter on simulation
in forecasting and optimization.
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For our UK and European visitors:
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| Details:
First Edition: Published Jan., 1998 by Prentice Hall Business Publishing, Copyright 1998, 279 pp., Cloth, ISBN 0-13-621608-0; Student Edition (140-day limit) of Crystal Ball included.
Second Edition: Published July, 2001 by Prentice Hall Business Publishing, 432 pp., Cloth, ISBN 0-13-0329282; Student Edition (140-day limit) of Crystal Ball included. |
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Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis, 5/e
By Cliff Ragsdale, Georgia Southern University |
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Description:
Cliff Ragsdale is an innovator of the spreadsheet teaching revolution and is highly regarded in the field of management science. The 5th edition retains the elements and philosophy that has made its past editions so successful.
New topics have been added as well as examples that are relevant to decision making in today's business world. This new edition of Spreadsheet Modeling and Decision Analysis provides succinct instruction in the most commonly used management science techniques and shows how these tools can be implemented using the most current version of Microsoft Excel for Windows. This text also focuses on developing both algebraic and spreadsheet modeling skills.
This 5th edition includes more coverage on decision makng practices, new time series analysis examples, more case studies, new techniques for project management networks, and more. Crystal Ball and OptQuest are covered in an 80+ page chapter dedicated to simulation, and CB Predictor is applied in the Time Series forecasting chapter.
Details:
Published 2006 by South-Western College Publishing, Copyright 2007, Cloth Bound with Disk, ISBN: 0324183992; Textbook (140-day) version of Crystal Ball Professional Edition (version 7.2.1) is packaged with the textbook.
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