Fact: You cannot exactly predict an uncertain future.

But in the face of such uncertainty, how can you make accurate, successful predictions about the cost of systems that have yet to be built or projects that have yet to be launched? How can you mitigate the risk in your cost and schedule estimates and eliminate unforeseen “surprises” in cost or schedule overruns?

One way is to assume exact knowledge of the system’s design and then make a best-guess about inevitable changes to the system. These best guesses come down to a specific number, generally bounded by a contingency amount. But cost estimates are not deterministic. They are forecasts that have a range of possible outcomes.

Understanding the implications of these ranges leads to more accurate decisions in predicting budgetary success. Crystal Ball® software helps you determine the ranges and likelihood of achieving success in your cost estimations.

Crystal Ball is a Microsoft® Excel®-based suite of analytical tools that includes Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting. With little effort, you can apply these advanced analytical techniques to your new or existing engineering and cost spreadsheets to create more accurate predictions and better informed business decisions.

Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets and needs to forecast uncertain results. Engineers and analysts in nearly every industry, from construction to manufacturing to government to consulting, rely on Crystal Ball to improve the quality of their decision-making processes. Common applications include capital acquisition analysis, cost model risk analysis, inventory forecasts based on historical demand, production planning, and supply chain integration.

With Crystal Ball, you can:

• Replace min/max estimates with more accurate range of all possible outcomes
• Mitigate your cost and schedule risks,
• Eliminate multiple manual “what if” estimates,
• Gain immediate insight to the driving inputs and output variations,
• Make knowledgeable decisions on where to focus resources, and
• Provide decision-makers with factual data that shows the risk associated with each choice.

Key features of interest to your industry include sensitivity analysis, correlation, historical data fitting and optimization. The sensitivity analysis helps you to understand which of the uncertain input variables are most critical and drive the uncertainty of your cost model. Correlation lets you link uncertain inputs and account for their positive or negative dependencies. If historical data does exist, the data fitting feature will compare the data to the distribution algorithms and calculate the best possible fit and parameters for your data. Optimization allows you to account for uncertainty and risk in simulations but still select the best possible settings (e.g., staffing levels, investment amounts, product prices) to achieve success.

LEARN MORE ABOUT CRYSTAL BALL FOR AEROSPACE APPLICATIONS

This page offers links to a growing number of resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. Additionally, you can view a list of common uses and examples reported directly from customers using Crystal Ball. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!

RECORDED WEB SEMINARS

Cost Optimization of Space Systems Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to solve the problems of optimizing the total cost, affordability and effectiveness of a replacement space system. Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC and Karl Luce, Master Black Belt at Decisioneering, Inc. Recorded October 18, 2005	View recording Download files
Scenario-Based Risk Analysis Using 2-D Simulation Learn how stochastic simulation tools can be used to perform scenario-based risk analysis using two-dimensional simulation techniques to examine the effects of scenario assumptions on the total uncertainty and risk of a cost estimate. Presented by Raymond Covert, Technical Director at MCR, LLC Recorded October 24, 2006	View recording Download files

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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES

Large-scale Assessment of Financial Consequences of Risks: the Case of the Aria ne Space Program Here Thiriez, Professor, HEC School of Management	Download
Missile System Design Integrated with Production Planning using Predictive Modeling Techniques Rick Wood, Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control, Jorge Pica, Lockheed Martin Missiles and Fire Control / Brigham Young University	Download
Simulation Modeling to Optimize Stochastic Manufacturing Processes and Resources by a Dynamic Monte Carlo Method By Roberto F. Lu, The Boeing Company, and Guixiu Qiao, National Institute of Standards and Technology	Download
Risk Analysis of A Commercial Satellite Project To Determine Project Health Tweed W. Ross III, Associate, Booz Allen Hamilton	Download
US Aerospace Risk Analysis Survey By Hollis M. Black, III, Manager of Parametric Estimating, The Boeing Company	Download

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CASE STUDIES

Analyzing Engineering Projects Analyzing Engineering Projects Using Real Options -- Intelligent Investments in the Face of Uncertainty at Boeing	Download
Lifecycle Cost and Benefit Analysis Use of Crystal Ball Pro Provides TRW With Increased Flexibility and Efficiency	Download

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EXAMPLE MODELS

Hardware Cost Estimation for Aerospace Project From: Ralph Geiger, Operational Concept Analyst, The Boeing Company Detail: This engineering cost assessment model uses a competitive price estimate risk analysis for an avionics upgrade. The systems engineers have developed a preliminary design configuration that includes estimates for hardware, software, and systems engineering. The model uses cell referencing and a correlation matrix.	Download For: Crystal Ball Level: Simple- Moderate
Project Cost Example Detail: At the click of a button, this simple VBA example defines distributions around a list of variables, defines a forecast, runs a simulation, and exports a forecast chart to the worksheet. You can add as many project elements as you like, and the VBA code is provided on a second worksheet within the model.	Download For: Crystal Ball & Dev. Kit Level: Simple
Cost Estimation Model Detail: This model is a simplified cost estimating tool for a project manager to understand the cost risks for a project.	Download For: Crystal Ball Level: Simple

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COMMON USES & EXAMPLES

The following examples were provided by our customers and represent only some of the potential aerospace applications for Crystal Ball.

• Aviation risk analysis studies
• Capital acquisition analysis
• Cost model risk analysis
• Cost risk assessment
• Design characterization and optimization
• Determine the best R&D mix
• Engineering Analysis
• Forecast inventory levels based on history demand
• Modelling of costs and profitability for variable work input
• Modelling of response against customer requirements
• Monte Carlo simulation for forecasting aircraft engine component failures
• Multiple applications across the business.
  
• Operations Research
• Precedence Network Analysis
• Predict the durability of electronic device structures
• Production planning
• Reliability analysis and proposals
• Six Sigma Analysis
• Supply chain integration
• Support the development and optimization of advanced systems concepts
• Supporting business acquisitions by providing appropriate ranges of target results

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