This section offers links to a growing number of construction resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
RECORDED WEB SEMINARS
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Modelo de Valoración Financiera Para Proyectos de Construcción
Lo que se propone con esta metodología es una forma más precisa de realizar un análisis financiero por medio de un modelo que permita involucrar el comportamiento de las variables macroeconómicas y microeconómicas que afectan el sector, a través de la proyección de un flujo libre de caja, el cual se descuenta al WACC.
Presented by Sebastián Castaneda, Experto internacional en Crystal Ball y Real Options Analysis Toolkit
Recorded September 27, 2007
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View recording
 Download files
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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
EXAMPLE MODELS
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Cost Estimation Model
Detail: This model is a simplified cost estimating tool
for a project manager to understand the cost risks for a project. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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EXAMPLE USES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the construction applications for
Crystal Ball.
- Financial Analysis and Business Consultancy
- Financial planning in BOT projects
- Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate acreage requirements for receiving ports to deliver aggregate to in light of fluctuating sales demand, ship capacities and inventory levels to avoid stock-outs, etc.
- Risk/Cost analysis and probability to decide on appropriate $ allowance for risk to be added to an estimate of a construction project cost
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This section offers links to a growing number of consumer goods resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
EXAMPLE MODELS
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Critical Path / Time to Market Analysis
Detail: This model can be used to analyze a project schedule or the time it would take to get a product to market. The goal of this model is to understand the uncertainty of when the project will finish and how often a step will fall on the critical path. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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Magazine Checkout Sales
Detail: This model shows the power of the Batch Fit tool in Crystal Ball 2000. This model contains historical, non-time-series data for past sales of four magazines and Crystal Ball can fit that data with distributions to predict future sales. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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Monica's Bakery
Detail: This model can be used to explore most of the features of CB Predictor and Crystal Ball (for the forecasted values). You can forecast future sales of different breads to schedule ingredient deliveries, estimate future cash flow so that Monica knows when to plan major capital expenditures, and predict labor costs so that she can pay an optimal wage as well as decide when it becomes economically feasible to buy equipment to save on labor costs. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball &
CB Predictor
Level:
Simple-moderate |
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Quarterly Sales Projections
Detail: Simple model that determines the ending sales for twelve business quarters given uncertain company growth. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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Shampoo Sales
Detail: A very simple forecasting problem. Forecast the sales of a shampoo based on unit sales for nine months. |
Download
For:
CB Predictor
Level:
Simple |
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EXAMPLE USES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the consumer goods and retail applications for
Crystal Ball.
- Demand forecasting
- Estimation analysis
- Market forecasting
- Network sizing forecasting
- Sales Forecasting, strategic analysis, operations management
- Uncertainty evaluation of engineering calculation and design
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This section offers links to a growing number of real estate resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
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Modelling
the Fulfillment of the Real Estate Utilisation Plan for 2002
by Monte-Carlo simulation
By Dr. István Fekete (fekete.istvan@ln.matav.hu),
Tamás Katona, Matáv Rt (Hungarian Telecom) |
Download |
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Real Estate Investment
Thesis: A Real Estate Portfolio Optimizer Utilizing Spreadsheet
Modeling with Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization and Monte
Carlo Simulation
By William F. Tucker, Johns Hopkins University |
Download |
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Risk and Optimal Timing in a Real Estate Development Using Real Options Analysis
By Robert Fourt, Gerald Eve
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Download |
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The "3S-Risk
Method" with Transaction Decisions
By Lars-Oliver Breuer, MRICS (this is a German-language
paper) |
Download |
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EXAMPLE MODELS
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Commercial Real Estate Valuation and Financial Feasibility I
From: William A. Ferrigno, Questor Consulting, LLC
Detail: The purpose of this spreadsheet model is twofold: 1) to estimate the valuation of commercial property and 2) to determine the financial feasibility of an investment in the subject property for a 10 year holding period. The uncertainty in this model lies in the many economic factors to be input as assumptions by the user. The most important assumptions in this analysis are the Net Operating Income assumptions (Annual Gross Rent, Vacany and Collection Loss Factor, and Operating Expenses) and the Cap Rate at Purchase. Special attention should be given to these assumptions. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
simple-moderate |
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Commercial Real Estate Valuation and Financial Feasibility II
From: William A. Ferrigno, Questor Consulting, LLC
Detail: The purpose of this spreadsheet model is threefold: 1) to estimate the valuation of commercial property, 2) to determine the financial feasibility of an investment in the subject property for a user defined holding period (from 1 to 30 years), and 3) to help identify the optimal holding period for the investment. The uncertainty in this model lies in the many economic factors to be input as assumptions by the user. The most important assumptions in this analysis are the Net Operating Income assumptions (Annual Gross Rent, Vacancy and Collection Loss Factor, and Operating Expenses) and the Cap Rate at Purchase. Special attention should be given to these assumptions. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball and OptQuest
Level:
simple-moderate |
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Western US Historic Rehab Hotel: Development Cost & Operating Pro
Forma
From: Donald Nimey, Business Advisory Services, LLC (see
Consultants' Corner listing for contact information)
Detail: This real estate development model addresses one
issue that often comes up when financing a project, using floating
rate vs. fixed rate debt. Crystal Ball is used to simulate floating
rate debt for a comparison vs. fixed rate debt. The standard for
comparison is Net Present Value.
The twist in this model is that the partnership relationship between
the Developer and the LTD A investor is such that the interest of
the parties are not necessarily in line. This reminds the user how
much skill is involved with taking data to make good business decisions
and suggests that simulation can and should be used early in the
process of formulating a business deal structure.
This early application can ensure that partners carry the proper
risk/reward and that their interests are aligned on key issues.
Simulation can measure weakness and disparities in deal structures.
Through negotiations, leases, derivatives, and insurance, a business
model can revised to make the deal more sound.
NOTE: When you first open the model, it will tell you that
you have a circular reference. This is acceptable, and the instructions
in Step 1 tell you how to change the Excel settings to deal with
this situation. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Complex |
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TEXTBOOKS
EXAMPLE USES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the real estate applications for
Crystal Ball.
- Cost risk analysis
- Help with deciding which real estate projects to undertake while optimizing returns for both our company and our equity investors
- Portfolio analysis
- Valuation of properties
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This section offers links to a growing number of technology resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
CASE STUDIES
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| Gemplus
on Real Options in High-Tech R&D |
Download |
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| Intellectual
Property Economics on Real Options in Patent and Intangible
Valuation |
Download |
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Market Research
Crystal Ball Allows Hewlett-Packard To Bring Printers To Market
On Time |
Download |
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New Technology Acquisition
For Hasbro, Predicting the next Hot Toy is Not Child's
Play |
Download |
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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
EXAMPLE USES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the consumer goods and retail applications for
Crystal Ball.
- Ceramic formulation and optimisation of process
- Economic analysis of investment activities
- Financial analysis
- Forecasting production capability and identifying opportunities for improvement
- Part of Lean Six Sigma black Belt activities
- Reliability engineering Monte Carlo simulation
- Risk analysis
- Use for Quality analysis such as DOE, Process Capability, Process Optimization, and Design For Six Sigma
- We are fabricating a MEMS device that pushes the technology envelope. We are doing some DOE (Designed Experiments) and hope to utilize the simulation capability of Crystal Ball to facilitate learning and decision making.
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