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| PHARMACEUTICALS / LIFE SCIENCES |
Are you confident that your spreadsheet
models
accurately portray your risks?
Can your spreadsheets:
- Forecast production given uncertain demand?
- Predict operational bottlenecks before they occur?
- Optimize the allocation of resources in a product portfolio?
- Pinpoint which model inputs are causing the most uncertainty?
- Quantify the risks associated with new product development
costs?
No? Then you need Crystal
Ball!
Crystal Ball is a Microsoft® Excel®-based suite of analytical tools that includes Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting. With little effort, you can apply these advanced analytical techniques to your new or existing spreadsheets to create more accurate cost and financial predictions and better informed business decisions.
Today, Crystal
Ball is the tool chosen by more than 85% of the Fortune 500.
Pharmaceutical companies including Pfizer, Johnson & Johnson,
McKesson, Merck, Roche Diagnostics, GlaxoSmithCline, and Eli
Lilly all rely on Crystal Ball to manage risk and make more
informed business and strategic decisions. |
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With
increased competition, globalization, decreased product life
cycles and sophisticated new cost containment systems and incentive
structures, this is a challenging time for pharmaceutical companies.
Whether you're focused on product valuation, portfolio optimization,
licensing negotiations, or production forecasts, your knowledge
and your toolset will make the difference between whether you
ultimately succeed or fail.
Low-cost software and improved computing power
can enable you to better calculate the risks in your strategy
or process. Crystal Ball can help you better assess your alternatives,
increase the confidence you have in planning details, and make
more informed decisions despite a lack of data or an uncertain.
 Crystal Ball is for anyone who uses spreadsheets
and needs to forecast uncertain results. Whether you're working
on NPV analysis, operations management, supply chain forecasting,
or product life cycle cost analysis, Crystal Ball can help to
improve the quality of your spreadsheet-based decisions.
Primary pharmaceutical and life science Crystal Ball applications
include new or potential product valuation, market penetration
analysis for new product lines, pre-negotiation analysis, and
modeling of NPV (Net Present Value), IRR (Internal Rate of Return),
and EVA (Economic Value Added). Monte Carlo simulation can be
applied with equal strength to financial forecasting and to
product development and marketing.
LEARN MORE ABOUT CRYSTAL BALL FOR LIFE SCIENCE AND PHARMACEUTICAL APPLICATIONS
This page offers links to a growing number of resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. Additionally, you can view a list of common uses and examples reported directly from customers using Crystal Ball. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!
"Crystal Ball is a very flexible
tool that allows very quick stochastic analysis. It allows
for transparency and inclusion of uncertainty into any analysis."
-- Jack Kloeber, Director, Portfolio Management,
J&J |
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RECORDED WEB SEMINARS
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Estimating waiting targets for NHS Inpatients, Outpatients and Diagnostic
This seminar presents a powerful planning tool which was developed using stochastic modelling to assess which waiting time targets (Inpatient, Outpatient and Diagnostic) are needed in order to meet the Department of Health 18 weeks target and identify bottlenecks in patient pathways.
Presented by Jorge Villacampa-Ortega from Barts and The London NHS Trust
Recorded June 21, 2007
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View recording
 Download files
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Using Monte Carlo Simulation in Valuing Drug Discovery Pipelines
Learned how stochastic analysis can be used in the valuation of both early and late stage drug discovery pipelines to understand the risk-adjusted value of the pipeline and determine how to increase the expected monetary value (EMV).
Presented by Walter Greenblatt, Managing Director of Walter Greenblatt & Associates
Recorded October 12, 2005
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View recording
Download files |
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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES
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CASE STUDIES
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Pharmaceutical
DuPont Merck is a research-focused pharmaceutical
company. |
Download |
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EXAMPLE MODELS
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DCF Analysis - AllergyGone
Detail: Your pharmaceutical company is very interested in acquiring AllergyGone, a potential new anti-allergy drug with no known side effects. You have been asked to produce a Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis of AllergyGone over a five-year period to determine if this product is worth acquiring. Because of the uncertainty in the product pricing, demands, and costs, your company has decided to use Crystal Ball to simulate the Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR) prior to negotiations. Crystal Ball can help you to determine a bottom-line negotiation price and the model variables that drive the variability in the NPV and IRR forecasts. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level: Simple-moderate |
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Marketing Model for a Pharmaceutical
Company
From: Hervé Thiriez, a management professor at Groupe HEC, CEO
of Logma SA
(a consulting company, and CEO of Editions
MEV, the distributor of Crystal Ball in France.
Detail: This model is a simplified version of several marketing
models developed for different pharmaceutical companies including
Lilly France, SANOFI, Pasteur-Mérieux (now Aventis) and Smithkline
Beecham. The model measures the net present value, over 10
years, of the introduction of a new pharmaceutical product. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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Vision Research: ClearView Project
Detail: The Vision Research spreadsheet models a business situation filled with uncertainty. Vision Research has completed preliminary development of a new drug, code-named ClearView, that corrects nearsightedness. This revolutionary new product could be completely developed and tested in time for release next year if the FDA approves the product. Although the drug works well for some patients, the overall success rate is marginal, and Vision Research is uncertain whether the FDA will approve the product. Because the ClearView project is a multimillion-dollar risk, Vision Research has decided to use Crystal Ball to help decide whether to scrap the project or to proceed to develop and market this potentially profitable new drug.
This model is almost identical to the one used in the Crystal
Ball Quick Demo and the Pharmaceutical
Quick Demo. |
Download
For:
Crystal Ball
Level:
Simple |
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COMMON USES & EXAMPLES
The following examples were provided by our customers and represent
only some of the potential pharmaceutical applications for Crystal
Ball.
- Building estimation models
- Confirmation and extensions to discrete event simulation
- Decision support tool for manufacturing engineering and operations
- Determine market penetration for new product lines
- Determine staffing needs based on the product pipeline forecast
- Equipment selection
- Evaluation of likelihood of payout scenarios of multiple factor
incentive plans (compensation bonus plans)
- Examine product pipeline success rates (e.g., what are the
chances of product
X moving to the next stage based on several types of criteria)
- Financial analysis for compounds and portfolio
- Gauge success potential for R&D projects
- Outlicensing and inlicensing valuations and deal structuring
- Production forecasts
- Quick excursions into dependency and correlation, and distributions.
- R&D portfolio management
- Sales forecasting and sensitivity analysis
- Sensitivity analysis on market models as background to licensing
negotiations
- Stochastic optimization
- Strategic project investment decisions
- Supply chain management: determine safety stock levels at
international distribution centers
- Uncertainty analysis of single project valuation
- Valuation of new product opportunities
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TEXTBOOKS
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