Are you confident of the risks you face in your business and strategic planning?

With increased competition, reduced resources, changing government regulations, and staff cutbacks, this is a challenging time for business, including utilities. Whether you're creating a business case, determining pricing sensitivity, forecasting demand in competitive markets, or assessing the financial risks in new project planning and technology, you need to account for the known uncertainty in your models.

To ignore the effects of uncertainty means to potentially expose your organization to unnecessary risk and potential failure. Your knowledge and your toolset will make the difference between whether your work succeeds or fails.

No matter what risks you face, Crystal Ball software can help you find the specific solution for your needs. Crystal Ball is a Microsoft® Excel®-based suite of analytical tools that includes Monte Carlo simulation, optimization, and forecasting. With little effort, you can apply these advanced analytical techniques to your new or existing spreadsheets to create more accurate cost and financial predictions and better informed business decisions.

Today, Crystal Ball is the tool chosen by more than 85% of the Fortune 500. Join the likes of Con Edison, Reliant Energy, Florida Power & Light, Oklahoma Gas & Electric, Illinois Power Co., Ruhrgas AG, and Pennsylvania Power and Light who are using Crystal Ball for demand forecasting, option valuation, capital budgeting, and new business planning.

Low-cost software and improved computing power can enable you to better calculate the risks in your strategy or process. Crystal Ball can help you better assess your alternatives, increase the confidence you have in planning details, and make more informed decisions despite a lack of data or an uncertain future.

Key features of interest to your industry include sensitivity and tornado analysis, correlation, and historical data fitting. The sensitivity analysis and tornado analysis are two separate methods that help you to understand which of the uncertain inputs drive the uncertainty in your models. Correlation lets you link uncertain inputs and account for their positive or negative dependencies. If historical data does exist, the data fitting feature will compare the data to the distribution algorithms and calculate the best possible fit and parameters for your data.

With Crystal Ball, you can:

• Replace min/max estimates with more accurate range of all possible outcomes
• Reduce the time required to produce forecasts,
• Eliminate multiple manual “what if” estimates,
• Mitigate your cost and schedule risks,
• Gain immediate insight to the inputs that drive uncertainty and most effect failure and success,
• Make knowledgeable decisions on where to focus resources, and
• Provide decision-makers with factual data that shows the risk associated with each choice.

LEARN MORE ABOUT CRYSTAL BALL FOR UTILITIES

This page offers links to a growing number of resources, including recorded Web seminars, articles, white papers, case studies, and example models. Additionally, you can view a list of common uses and examples reported directly from customers using Crystal Ball. You can also download a free trial version of Crystal Ball to see how it can help improve your business forecasts and decisions!

"Crystal Ball has changed the way my organization performs business and market planning." -- Christopher A. Grier, ConEd Nuclear Services

RECORDED WEB SEMINARS

Power Asset Evaluations: Challenges in Dealing with Uncertainty Simulation analysis of two separate gas fired power generation plants will be presented – the first one at the development and the second one at the operational stage. Presented by Andrei Smilenov, Director Analysis and Planning at NiSource Inc. Recorded February 6, 2007	View recording Download files
Developing a Strong Energy Asset Portfolio Using the “Efficient Frontier” Approach Explore how to develop a strong energy asset portfolio with a case study on power plants. The case study illustrates implementation of the “efficient frontier” approach to portfolio development. Presented by Jim Letzelter, Partner, with Webb, Scott & Quinn Recorded January 18, 2006	View recording Download files
Capital Project Evaluation and Optimization with Crystal Ball Tools Learn how to use time series forecasting to estimate future market share, how to use optimization of product pricing over product life to maximize profit, and how to perform valuation of strategic flexibility to expand production in strong market conditions. The conclusions of the seminar focus on the dramatic transformation of the original single point-estimate profit forecast, into a more realistic and valuable assessment of expected profit, risk, and key drivers that guide management in its decision-making. Presented by Steve Hoye, Senior Risk Consultant at Oracle Recorded October 3, 2007	View recording No downloads
How To Use Crystal Ball In Your Economics Course: Weather Hedging In The Gas Industry Learn how Crystal Ball can be used to analyze risk associated with hedging strategy using weather-based derivatives Presented by Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor at the Prague University of Economics Recorded December 11, 2006	View recording Download files
Valuation of Weather Derivatives Weather-related risks affect businesses all over the world. This seminar presents an easy-to-use framework for valuation of weather derivatives and how to create actionable items to manage weather-related risks. Presented by Jiri Hnilica, Associate Professor in the Department of Business Economics at the University of Economics in Prague, Czech Republic Recorded July 12, 2007	View recording Download files

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WHITE PAPERS & ARTICLES

Analyzing Electric Utility NOx Emission Allowance Trading Strategies By Frank Selker	Download
Assessing the Economic Feasibility of the Waste to Energy Facility Using Crystal Ball Boguslaw Bieda, Ph.D., AGH-University of Science and Technology	Download
Crystal Ball in Weather-Linked Derivatives Valuation Jirí Hnilica, Ph.D., University of Economics, Prague	Download
What's the Risk of Rolling Blackouts?: Modeling Electric Power Resource Adequacy Josh Bode, Project Manager & Senior Analyst, Freeman, Sulllivan & Co	Download

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CASE STUDIES

Minnesota Power Financial Simulation via Crystal Ball Professional Aids Risk Management At Minnesota Power	Download

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EXAMPLE MODELS

Toledo Gas Detail: This company wants to forecast the gas needs of a region. The model highlights regression and other CB Predictor advanced functions. This model also contains macros and is an example for the CB Predictor Developer Kit.	Download For: CB Predictor & Dev. Kit Level: Simple-moderate

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COMMON USES & EXAMPLES

The following examples were provided by our customers and represent only some of the potential utility-related applications for Crystal Ball.

• Analysis of contingency provisions for construction project capital estimates
• Analysis of storage sizing based on a delivery and consumption model
• Analysis of water flow rates at production facilities
• Analyze rates, view probable and optimal results in new service plans and customer relations services
• Assessing the financial risks in new project planning and technology
• Decision making - strategic project evaluations
• Demand simulation and distribution fitting
• Determine confidence Intervals to bound forecast for planning purposes
• Economic forecasting in general planning unit
• Evaluate product/product line/enterprise profitability (NPV & EVA)
• Evaluate railcar maintenance costs and components
• Monte Carlo simulation of Market VAR & Credit VAR
• Modelling macroeconomic and operating variables
• Optimize our power supply portfolio Produce the lowest cost at an acceptable risk Also optimize power generation projects
• Project analysis, including maintenance and new service matters
• Risk modelling and assessments
• Weather insurance simulation
  

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