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IN THIS ISSUE |
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WHAT'S NEW |
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 Finalists Announced for the 2007 Crystal Ball Monte Carlo Awards (The Monties)
We are proud to announce the finalists for the 2007 Monties, which will be awarded at the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference dinner on May 21 in a lively - and brief - dinner ceremony. Finalists for this first-ever award competition include projects from Intel, Motorola, GE, Agriculture & Agri-Food Canada, TRW Automotive, Princeton University, and Bryant University.
The Monties recognize the outstanding and innovative usage of Crystal Ball software. Awards will be given in five categories: Best Technical Application, Best Financial Application, Most Innovative Application, Most Unusual Application, and Best Student/Academic Project, and a Lifetime Achievement Award will also be presented.  The judging panels have selected four finalists for each category, and a winner for each category will be announced at the user conference.
That evening, the Lifetime Achievement Award will be presented to Dr. Narendra Soman,
Master Black Belt at
GE Healthcare Life Sciences. Since the early 1990's Dr. Soman has taught and consulted with Crystal Ball software and has actively promoted the use of Monte Carlo simulation both as a design analysis tool and as a process and product improvement tool.
> Read more about the 20 finalists and about Dr. Soman. Visit the Monties Awards page on the Crystal Ball Web site
> See the full program for the 2007 Crystal Ball User Conference and register today!
WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit
April 24-27, The Westin Chicago North Shore
http://www.wcbf.com/quality/5069/?source=crystalball
Receive a 20% discount to this event! Use the code: 5069CrystalBall20 |
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Public Seminar:
 Crystal Ball Risk Analysis: Awareness For Six Sigma
Date: Wednesday, May 2nd, 2007
Time: 8:00 AM - 12:00 PM (EDT)
Location: Jacksonville, FL at the JEA Facilities (21 West Church Street, Jacksonville, FL 32202)
Join us for a Crystal Ball Public Seminar. This half-day event will feature two speakers who will teach attendees new applications and best practices for using Crystal Ball for Six Sigma initiatives.
Jonathan Fleck, Trainer and Product Consultant for Decisioneering®, will present an overview of Crystal Ball software and how it relates to Six Sigma. Greg Eads, Master Black Belt from Blue Cross Blue Shield, will present two different models and topics: (1) Forecasting Annual Six Sigma Project Savings, and (2) Cycle Time Simulation, Quantifying Process Change.
This no-cost event will take place in Jacksonville, FL on Wednesday, May 2, 2007, from 8:00 a.m. - 12:00 p.m. (EDT) at the JEA facilities. Attendees will receive exclusive discounts on copies of Crystal Ball Professional Edition. Breakfast and snacks will be provided.
> For more information and to register for this seminar, visit our Web site
 Full Six Sigma Software Showcase Tour Calendar Announced
Crystal Ball software is teaming with other leading suppliers of software for Six Sigma and the ISSSP (International Society of Six Sigma Professionals) to present a free, half-day workshop to demonstrate the latest Six Sigma software tools, including Minitab® 15, GainSeeker®, RapAnalyst™, and Quality Companion™ 2.
Every attendee will receive a 30-day, single-user evaluation copy of each software package. Registration is required; space is limited. This is a must-attend workshop for:
- Practitioners who want to broaden their skill set,
- Leaders who need to plan the future of their toolset, and
- Anyone who wants a quick education on the best data tools in the Six Sigma market.
Calendar of Upcoming Showcases
May 10 - Scottsdale, AZ
May 15 - Chicago, IL
May 16 - Minneapolis, MN
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 14 - Houston, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
>  See the schedule and register on the ISSSP Web site
 Upcoming Web Seminars
(1) NPV and the Impact of Risk
Date: Tuesday, April 10, 2007
Time: 8:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver),
4:00 pm South Africa Standard Time
Location: Your desktop
Many analysts conduct NPV analysis without really understanding the meaning of NPV. NPV is a notional number that can never be ultimately measured. Please join John Casticas, Managing Partner of John Nicholas & Company, and learn how to integrate NPV with defined accounting measures like ARR and ROI.
> Register to attend this Web seminar
(2) Workshop de Manejo de Optimizador
Date: Wednesday, April 18, 2007 (Miércoles, Abril 18, 2007)
Time: 9:00 am Mountain Daylight Time (Denver), 10:00 am South America Pacific Standard Time
Location: Your desktop
Oscar Bravo Mendoza, funcionario de la Dirección de Planeación y Riesgos de Ecopetrol S.A., con 18 años de experiencia en el sector, presentará Aplicación práctica de optimizador en aplicaciones de portafolio de oportunidades y la selección de el número óptimo de pozos en un campo petrolero.
> Click here to enroll (Presione aqui para matricularse)
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CRYSTAL BALL RESOURCES |
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 WHITE PAPER:
"What's the Risk of Rolling Blackouts?: Modeling Electric Power Resource Adequacy"
Josh Bode, Project Manager & Senior Analyst, Freeman, Sullivan & Co
Source: The 2006 Crystal Ball User Conference
Adequate resources are vital to the operation of the electric power system. Not only can shortages in reserve margins lead to rolling blackouts, they can trigger system blackouts that span across states. Despite the high stakes, resource adequacy decisions are usually based on scenario analysis or guided by resource adequacy requirements that are not grounded on the actual risk and cost of electric outages.
While Monte Carlo and optimization methods are not new to resource adequacy analysis, they are often perceived as too complex and time consuming to warrant the effort, and almost no regulatory bodies and power utilities employ them to analyze resource adequacy despite their clear advantages. This paper demonstrates how the advances in software and computing power have made resource adequacy risk analysis via simulations more accurate, flexible, easier to implement, and far less reliant on unproven assumptions.
> Read the entire article
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Financial Modeling: Empower Your Spreadsheets with Monte Carlo Simulation
Are you an analyst interested in learning more about Crystal Ball software and how it can be applied to financial modeling? Would you like to turn static Microsoft® Excel® data and financial models into true risk models? Please join John Charnes, Professor, Scupin Faculty Fellow, and former Director of the Finance, Economics, and Decision Sciences Area in the University of Kansas School of Business, to learn about this and other equally important topics.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Mastering a Key Strategic Challenge: Sustained Value Creation through Business Cases
There are few tasks as important, or as difficult, as deciding upon a new strategic direction for your organisation. We exist in a world of tremendous technological change; yet for many enterprises, the technology for developing and implementing strategy has remained largely unchanged for decades. In this one-hour Web seminar, join Dr. Volker E. Pollmann, Ph.D, a Managing Director at Solution Matrix, who will discuss ways to create sustainable value, taking into account the multiple perspectives of your company's key stakeholders. He will demonstrate techniques that will allow these different viewpoints to become a competitive advantage rather than remain a barrier to progress.
> View this recorded Web seminar
RECORDED WEB SEMINAR:
Selecting Distribution Models
Monte Carlo simulation requires a distribution model for every input or assumption variable. Distribution models are important tools for all statistical tasks, including estimation, prediction, simulation, and communication. However, selecting the best distribution model can be difficult because there is never enough information. Further, the large number of distribution families with obscure names can be confusing. Please join Andy Sleeper, President of Successful Statistics LLC, as he presents essential tools for selecting and applying distribution models.
> View this recorded Web seminar
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CRYSTAL BALL® EVENTS
ISSSP 2007 Six Sigma Software Tour
May 10 - Scottsdale, AZ
May 15 - Chicago, IL
May 16 - Minneapolis, MN
June 13 - Dallas, TX
June 14 - Houston, TX
June 20 - Denver, CO
June 21 - Los Angeles, CA
Public Seminar: Mastering a Key Strategic Challenge
April 23, 2007
Frankfurt, Germany
2007 Crystal Ball User Conference
May 21-23, 2007
Denver, Colorado
TRAINING SCHEDULE
Crystal Ball Classes
WESTERN US / CANADA
Seattle, WA: Apr. 10-11
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 10-11
San Francisco, CA: Apr. 17-18
Denver, CO: Apr. 25-26
Las Vegas, NV: May 15-16
San Diego, CA: May 15-16
Denver, CO: May 16-17
Denver, CO: May 24-25
Phoenix, AZ: May 30-31
Anchorage, AK: Jun. 26-27
Denver, CO: Jun. 27-28
CENTRAL US / CANADA
Indianapolis, IN: Apr. 10-11
Milwaukee, WI: Apr. 10-11
Cincinnati, OH: Apr. 24-25
Detroit, MI: May 2-3
Dallas, TX: May 8-9
Minneapolis, MN: Jun. 6-7
Chicago, IL: Jun. 26-27
EASTERN US / CANADA
Orlando, FL: Apr. 17-18
Philadelphia, PA: Apr. 17-18
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 25-26
New York City: May 1-2
Montreal, Canada: May 8-9
Atlanta, GA: May 30-31
Washington DC: Jun. 5-6
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 5-6
Islin, NJ: Jun. 12-13
Charlotte, NC: Jun. 12-13
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 19-20
New York City: Jun. 27-28
EUROPE
London, England: May 8-9
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 12-13
London, England: Jun. 13-14
Munich, Germany: Jun. 19-20
LATIN AMERICA
Buenos Aires, Argentina: Apr. 11-12
Santiago, Chile: Apr. 16-17
ASIA / AUSTRALIA
Melbourne, Australia: May 1-2
Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia: May 3-4
Sydney, Australia: May 7-8
Brisbane, Australia: May 10-11
Perth, Australia: May 14-15
Manila, Philippines: May 28-29
Advanced Crystal Ball for Oil & Gas
Aberdeen, Scotland: May 30-31
Houston, TX: Jun. 19-20
Crystal Ball Applications for Six Sigma
Los Angeles, CA: Apr. 12
Denver, CO: Apr. 27
Toronto, Canada: Jun. 7
Introduction to Real Options
New York City: May 3
London, England: May 10
Denver, CO: May 18
Frankfurt, Germany: Jun. 14
Spreadsheet Modeling Techniques for Business: Best Practices
Ottawa, Canada: Apr. 27
London, England: Jun. 15
King of Prussia, PA: Jun. 21
Suggest a training
date or location
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SPE Rocky Mountain Oil & Gas Technology Symposium
April 16-18
Denver, CO
8th Annual Six Sigma Summit London & Excellence Awards
April 17-19
London, UK
Hyperion Solutions
April 22-25
Orlando, FL
WCBF Lean Six Sigma Summit
April 24-27, The Westin Chicago, IL
2007 INFORMS Conference on O.R. Practice
April 27-May 1
Vancouver, BC
ISSSP 8th Annual Six Sigma Leadership Conference
May 7-10
Scottsdale, AZ
4th Annual Canadian Six Sigma Summit
May 30 - June 1
Toronto, ON
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If you have questions, comments, or reader feedback, please send them to us at newsletter@crystalball.com
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Tomorrow's Forecast is an online production of Decisioneering, Inc. Newsletters are e-mailed to subscribers near the end of the first and third weeks of the month.
This e-mail newsletter is sent only to those individuals who either:
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You can also visit our Web site and follow the unsubscribe directions.
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CB TIP:
Creating a Sensitivity Pie Chart
Did you know that, in Crystal Ball software 7.x, you can create pie chart views of your sensitivity data? To create a pie chart (shown below), do the following:
- Run a Crystal Ball software simulation.
- Open a sensitivity chart through the toolbar icon or through the Analyze > Sensitivity Chart dialog.
- Once you have the desired sensitivity chart open, select Preferences > Chart or double-click on the center of the sensitivity chart. On the Chart Type tab of this dialog, select Pie from the Chart type pick list. Click on OK to view your pie chart view.
- You can also customize this chart (e.g., 3D graphics, displaying values, transparency) as you would other charts.
| Share a comment, risk analysis tip or a new CB Tip with your fellow Crystal Ball software users! Send your contribution to newsletter@crystalball.com. |
> Previously published tips and techniques
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CONFERENCE ROUNDUP |
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SPEAKING OPPORTUNITIES |
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These conferences have announced a call for speakers. If you wish to submit a talk that discusses Crystal Ball software in some aspect, and if that talk is accepted, please let us know. We are always willing to offer some form of support to our customers.
 SRA 2007 Annual Meeting
December 9-12, 2007, San Antonio, Texas
Risk Analysis, including risk perception, risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication, represents an interdisciplinary field. The Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) annual meeting brings together nearly 1,000 international scientists and practitioners from a wide range of disciplines who share an interest in risk analysis. Representing academia, government, industry, NGOs, private firms, and themselves, SRA members recognize the value of diverse perspectives and a shared commitment to high quality risk analysis methodology and practice.
This year, the SRA annual meeting will be at the Marriott Rivercenter in San Antonio, TX. The meeting will include several plenary sessions focused on the theme of Risk 007: Agents of Analysis. It will also include technical sessions in the form of oral presentations, posters, and poster-platforms. Abstracts are due by May 21.
> For more information on this speaking opportunity, visit the SRA Web site
2007 Summer Computer Simulation Conference (SCSC)
July 15-18, 2007, San Diego Marriot Mission Valley, San Diego, CA
SCSC'07 is focused on basic and applied research in modeling and simulation. The purpose of the conference is to provide a forum for researchers and governmental and industrial investigators to exchange ideas and discuss developments in this growing field. In addition to peer reviewed paper sessions.
The best contributed paper will be given an award. A selected group of full papers will be published in the special issue of Simulation Journal. Papers are due by April 20, 2007.
> For more information on this speaking opportunity, visit the SCSC Web site
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CBUG DISCUSSIONS |
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The Crystal Ball User Group (CBUG) is a Yahoo!® online forum where Crystal Ball software users can discuss issues and methods related to Crystal Ball software.
PLEASE NOTE: You have several message delivery options when you join, including whether or not to receive single or digest e-mails. You can also opt not to receive any e-mail and simply log onto the Web site every so often to view discussion.
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Copyright (c) 2007 Decisioneering, Inc. "Decisioneering" and "Crystal Ball" are registered trademarks of Decisioneering, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Microsoft and Excel are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation in the U.S. and other countries.
OptQuest is a registered trademark of OptTek Systems, Inc.
Minitab and the Minitab logo are registered trademarks and Quality Companion is a trademark of Minitab Inc.
GainSeeker
is a registered trademark of Hertzler Systems, Inc.
RapAnalyst is a trademark of Raptor International.
Yahoo! is a registered trademark of Yahoo! Inc.
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April 5, 2007
